Part A: Reading Comprehension
Directions: Read the following text. Answer the questions below each text by choosing A, B, C or D. Mark your answers on the ANSWER SHEET. (40 points)
Text 3
Up until a few decades ago, our visions of the future were largely—though by no means uniformly—glowingly positive. Science and technology would cure all the ills of humanity, leading to lives of fulfilment and opportunity for all.
Now utopia has grown unfashionable, as we have gained a deeper appreciation of the range of threats facing us, from asteroid strike to epidemic flu and to climate change. You might even be tempted to assume that humanity has little future to look forward to.
But such gloominess is misplaced. The fossil record shows that many species have endured for millions of years—so why shouldn’t we? Take a broader look at our species’ place in the universe, and it becomes clear that we have an excellent chance of surviving for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years. Look up Homo sapiens in the “Red List” of threatened species of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and you will read: “Listed as Least Concern as the species is very widely distributed, adaptable, currently increasing, and there are no major threats resulting in an overall population decline.”
So what does our deep future hold? A growing number of researchers and organisations are now thinking seriously about that question. For example, the Long Now Foundation has as its flagship project a mechanical clock that is designed to still be marking time thousands of years hence.
Perhaps willfully, it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about the more immediate future. The potential evolution of today’s technology, and its social consequences, is dazzlingly complicated, and it’s perhaps best left to science fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities we can envisage. That’s one reason why we have launched Arc, a new publication dedicated to the near future.
But take a longer view and there is a surprising amount that we can say with considerable assurance. As so often, the past holds the key to the future: we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves.
This long perspective makes the pessimistic view of our prospects seem more likely to be a passing fad. To be sure, the future is not all rosy. But we are now knowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.
31. Our vision of the future used to be inspired by
32. The IUCN’s “Red List” suggests that human beings are
33. Which of the following is true according to Paragraph 5?
34. To ensure the future of mankind, it is crucial to
35. Which of the following would be the best title for the text?
全文翻译
直到几十年前，我们对未来的想象在很大程度上——尽管绝不是一致地——是充满乐观的。科学技术将治愈人类的一切病痛，为所有人带来充满成就和机遇的生活。
如今，乌托邦已经不再流行，因为我们对面临的威胁范围有了更深刻的认识——从小行星撞击到流感大流行，再到气候变化。你甚至可能忍不住认为人类几乎没有什么未来可以期待了。
但这种悲观情绪是错误的。化石记录显示，许多物种已经存在了数百万年——那我们为什么不能？更宏观地审视我们物种在宇宙中的位置，就会清楚地看到，我们极有可能在数万甚至数十万年内继续生存下去。在国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）的濒危物种"红色名录"中查找智人，你会读到："列为无危，因为该物种分布非常广泛，适应性强，目前数量在增加，且不存在导致总体数量下降的重大威胁。"
那么，我们的深远未来会怎样？越来越多的研究人员和组织正在认真思考这个问题。例如，长今基金会的一个旗舰项目是一台机械钟，它被设计成在数千年后依然在记录时间。
也许是故意的，思考如此漫长的时间尺度可能比思考更近期的未来更容易。当今技术的潜在演变及其社会后果复杂得令人眼花缭乱，也许最好留给科幻作家和未来学家去探索我们可以设想的众多可能性。这就是我们创办《Arc》的原因之一——一本致力于近期未来的新刊物。
但采取更长远的目光，我们能够以相当大的把握说出的东西多得惊人。正如常见的那样，过去掌握着通往未来的钥匙：我们现在已经识别出足够多的塑造地球和我们物种历史的长期模式，可以对我们的后代将面临的情境做出基于证据的预测。
这种长远的视角使得对我们前景的悲观看法看起来更像是一场短暂的时尚。当然，未来并非一片坦途。但我们现在已经有了足够的知识来减少许多威胁早期人类生存的风险，并改善未来人类的命运。
Answers & Explanations (答案与深度解析)
试题精解
31. [B] our faith in science and technology.
【解析】细节题。第一段描述了过去人们对未来的积极愿景：“科技将治愈人类的所有弊病...（Science and technology would cure all the ills of humanity）”。这表明过去对未来的乐观愿景是建立在“对科学和技术的信仰（faith in science and technology）”基础上的。A选项是结果，不是激发愿景的原因。
32. [A] a sustained species.
【解析】细节推断题。第三段引用 IUCN 红色名录对智人（Homo sapiens）的描述：“分布广泛、适应性强、正在增加、且没有面临导致整体人口下降的主要威胁”。这说明人类作为一个物种能够长久生存下去，是一个“能持续存在的物种（a sustained species）”。
33. [D] Our immediate future is hard to conceive.
【解析】段落推理题。第五段指出：思考漫长的时间尺度比思考“更眼前的未来（immediate future）”要容易得多；因为今天技术的潜在演变及其社会后果“令人眼花缭乱地复杂（dazzlingly complicated）”，最好留给科幻作家和未来学家去探索。这说明“我们眼前的未来很难构想（hard to conceive）”。故选 D。
34. [B] draw on our experience from the past.
【解析】细节推断题。第六段强调：正如通常那样，“过去掌握着通向未来的钥匙（the past holds the key to the future）”，我们现在已经确定了足够多塑造地球和我们物种历史的长期模式，以便做出基于证据的预测。这说明确保未来的关键在于“利用过去的经验（draw on our experience from the past）”。
35. [A] The Ever-bright Prospects of Mankind.
【解析】主旨题。文章第一段提到过去对未来的乐观，第二段提到现在的悲观，第三段立即用“But such gloominess is misplaced（这种悲观是不合时宜的）”进行驳斥。最后一段总结道：这种长远的视角让对我们前景的悲观主义看法似乎更像是一时的风尚（passing fad），并强调我们现在有足够的知识去降低风险。全文的基调是盲目悲观不可取，人类拥有长远且光明的未来。A选项“人类永远光明的前景”是对全文主旨的最优概括。
考研核心句型与长难句
【长难句剖析】
1. 介词短语的插入与强调：
"Up until a few decades ago, our visions of the future were largely—though by no means uniformly—glowingly positive."
【解析】双破折号中间的 though by no means uniformly 作插入语，意为“虽然绝不是完全一致的”，起到严谨修饰的作用。glowingly positive 形容极度乐观。
"Up until a few decades ago, our visions of the future were largely—though by no means uniformly—glowingly positive."
【解析】双破折号中间的 though by no means uniformly 作插入语，意为“虽然绝不是完全一致的”，起到严谨修饰的作用。glowingly positive 形容极度乐观。
2. 不定式作结果/目的状语：
"we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves."
【解析】enough... to... 结构。我们已经识别了“足够多”的塑造历史的长期模式，“以便”对我们后代将面临的情况做出基于证据的预测。shaping... 是现在分词短语作 patterns 的后置定语；in which 引导定语从句修饰 situations。
"we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves."
【解析】enough... to... 结构。我们已经识别了“足够多”的塑造历史的长期模式，“以便”对我们后代将面临的情况做出基于证据的预测。shaping... 是现在分词短语作 patterns 的后置定语；in which 引导定语从句修饰 situations。